Is There a Serial Killer in Austin Targeting Gay Men? (2026)

This article discusses drowning deaths and includes details that some readers may find distressing.

Since 2022, at least 38 bodies have been pulled from Lady Bird Lake in downtown Austin. Thirty of them were men. Most were between the ages of 20 and 49. Many were last seen on or near Rainey Street, Austin’s popular bungalow bar district, which backs directly onto the lake. The “official explanation” is accidental drowning — alcohol, poor decisions, dark water. A September 2025 study by Texas State University, conducted in collaboration with the Austin Police Department, concluded there is no evidence of a serial killer. Case closed, according to the authorities. But a lot of people aren’t buying it.

Why Everyone Is Talking About This Again

The Lady Bird Lake drownings have cycled through public attention several times since 2023, when the cases first went viral. A Facebook group tracking the deaths grew to 92,000 members. TikTok and Instagram exploded with theories. True crime podcasts dedicated episodes to the case — Nancy Grace, City Cast Austin, Body Bags with Joseph Scott Morgan, and the Crime Fix with Angenette Levy.

Even Joe Rogan has discussed the drownings on the Joe Rogan Experience, questioning how so many bodies can turn up in one lake and noting the FBI’s estimate that there are a lot of active serial killers operating in the United States at any given time.

Lady Bird Lake is almost soup at this point there’s so many bodies”

The Cases

Here’s what’s known about the bodies recovered from Lady Bird Lake since 2022, compiled from Fox 7 Austin, KXAN’s tracking map, and Travis County Medical Examiner records:

2022: Four bodies recovered. Ricky Parks was found in July — no foul play determined. Josue Moreno was found in a partially submerged truck in December; this case was ruled a homicide — he was shot while driving, and the truck went off a bridge into the water. A suspect was arrested. Christopher Gutierrez and Kyle Thornton were found in December with no evidence of foul play.

2023 — the year it went viral: Five bodies recovered, four of them within weeks of each other. Jason John, 30, was found in Lady Bird Lake in February after going missing. His family was told there was no visible scarring or scratching on his body. Cause of death: drowning, ruled accidental. Clifton Axtell, 40, was found in March. The Travis County Medical Examiner could not determine a cause of death. Jonathan Honey, 33, was found one day after he was last seen visiting a food truck on Rainey Street. Christopher Hays-Clark was also found — no foul play determined. Mogga Dogale was found in June; police said they were not treating his death as a homicide.

2024: At least five more bodies recovered, including three that were never publicly identified. An unidentified woman was found in February. Another body was found in April — police said it was “not being investigated as a homicide.” In September, a man was recovered after witnesses reported he’d been “acting erratically” on the hike-and-bike trail before entering the water. In December, 73-year-old Thi Lang Nguyen was found.

In total, according to the Texas State University study, 189 drowning deaths have been recorded in and around Lady Bird Lake since 2004.

Why Questions Persist

Set aside the conspiracy theories for a moment. Here’s what’s unusual about these cases, even on a strictly factual basis:

The demographics are striking. 30 of 38 bodies recovered since 2022 were male. The majority were between 20 and 49. Many were last seen in the Rainey Street bar district. This isn’t a random cross-section of the Austin population — it’s a specific demographic showing up dead in the same body of water, in the same part of the city, over and over.
Some cases don’t have clear explanations. Clifton Axtell’s cause of death was listed as “undetermined” by the Travis County Medical Examiner. Not accidental. Not suicide. Not homicide. Undetermined. When a medical examiner can’t determine how a healthy 40-year-old man died, that raises questions that “he probably fell in the water” doesn’t answer.
Drowning is almost impossible to prove as murder. Water destroys forensic evidence. There are no defensive wounds when someone is held under. No fingerprints. No DNA. Any bruising can be attributed to rocks or current. This means that even if someone were drowning people intentionally, the evidence would look exactly like what we’re seeing — a string of “accidental” drownings with no physical evidence of foul play.
There are alleged survivors. Jeff Jones told the Daily Mail that he was drugged and thrown into Lady Bird Lake in June 2023 and spent weeks in a coma. Connor Deserly, who had just moved to Austin, went out near 6th Street and Rainey Street in February 2024, disappeared from his group, and was later found propped against a dumpster in an alleyway — he spent time in a coma and attributed the incident to foul play.
The Reddit confession. In 2024, a user claiming to be an Austin bartender posted on r/bartenders that a regular customer had confessed to “killing homos” near the lake. The post went viral before being deleted. It was never verified — but it was never debunked either.

The Gay Men Question

Joe Rogan specifically raised the question of whether the victims are being targeted because they’re gay. The deleted Reddit bartender post explicitly referenced killing “homos.” Rainey Street and the 4th Street Warehouse District — Austin’s primary LGBTQ+ nightlife area — are less than a mile apart. Some online communities have drawn connections between the victim demographics and proximity to gay-friendly nightlife.

Here’s what the data actually shows: the victims are overwhelmingly male, mostly young, and most were last seen near Rainey Street. Whether they were specifically targeted for being gay has never been confirmed. The Austin Police Department has not identified sexual orientation as a factor in any of the cases. But it’s also true that APD has not publicly released enough information about the individual victims to rule it out. The question remains open — which is part of what makes this case so unsettling.

What the Official Study Says

The Texas State University study, released in September 2025, analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025 in cooperation with the Austin Police Department. The study identified 58 cases that matched the “Rainey Street Ripper” profile — males between 19 and 49, found near the Rainey Street area. Their conclusions:

No direct evidence or indirect warning signs of a serial murderer were found.
The drowning rate has been steady at approximately 3.4 per year and actually declined slightly over the past 15 years.
Less than 0.1% of serial murders worldwide involve drowning in lakes or rivers. It’s simply not a practical method of homicide — subduing and drowning a healthy adult in a public body of water without leaving injuries or attracting attention would be extremely difficult. All though with the strength of Austins Jujitsu scene there’s plenty of men capable of taking a person down and holding him underwater.
Contributing factors include alcohol consumption, the proximity of bars to the shoreline, and rapid population growth. Downtown Austin’s population grew 79% between 2010 and 2020. Alcohol sales in the Rainey Street district spiked 320% between 2020 and 2022 (though critics note that’s partly a COVID-era baseline comparison).

The study compared the cases to similar patterns in other cities — the “Smiley Face Killer” theory in the Midwest and the “Manchester Pusher” in England — both of which were ultimately dismissed by authorities. The researchers’ position is clear: this is what happens when a booming nightlife district sits next to open water and alcohol sales triple in two years.

Why Many People Aren’t Convinced

The study is thorough. The data is real. But the rebuttals are worth hearing.

The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — particularly for a crime that, by its nature, leaves no forensic trace. If someone were drugging men at bars and pushing them into the lake, the evidence would look exactly like accidental drowning. The study can prove that the drowning rate is consistent with population growth. It cannot prove that every individual death was an accident. Those are two different claims.

The FBI estimates there are 25 to 50 active serial killers in the United States at any given time (some estimates run higher). They have to be somewhere. The statistical argument that “this probably isn’t a serial killer” is not the same as proof that it isn’t.

Families of the victims have been vocal about their skepticism. Jason John’s brother has questioned the accidental ruling. Jonathan Honey was found one day after being seen at a Rainey Street food truck — healthy, not known for heavy drinking, not depressed. His family doesn’t accept that he simply fell into the water.

And then there are the survivor accounts. Jeff Jones says he was drugged and thrown in. Connor Deserly can’t explain how he ended up unconscious in an alleyway after one drink. These are first-person accounts of exactly the kind of predatory behavior that a serial attacker near the lake would exhibit. The study does not address or refute them.

What Austin Has Done

To their credit, the city of Austin hasn’t ignored the problem — regardless of its cause. Since 2023, the city has committed $1 million in safety improvements around Rainey Street and Lady Bird Lake:

New permanent fencing and gates along the Rainey Street trailhead
Enhanced lighting along the lakeside path
Surveillance cameras at key access points
Stationed first responders at the south end of Rainey Street on weekend nights
The “Sip Safely” program — $100,000 in funding for free drink-spiking test strips at participating bars

Since these improvements were installed, the number of drownings fitting the “Ripper” profile has decreased. That supports the official explanation — better barriers mean fewer drunken falls into the lake. It also supports the alternative theory — a predator would avoid an area with new cameras, lighting, and first responders. Both interpretations are valid. Neither is conclusive.

What Visitors Should Know

Whatever you believe about these cases, the practical advice is the same:

Stay with your group. Don’t let anyone wander off alone, especially if they’ve been drinking.
Use rideshares. Don’t walk the lakeside hike-and-bike trail at night. It’s dark, it’s close to the water, and it’s not a safe shortcut home.
Watch your drinks. Don’t leave them unattended. The “Sip Safely” test strips are available at participating Rainey Street bars — ask your bartender.
If someone is dangerously intoxicated, get them to safety immediately. Don’t assume they’ll be fine. Call a rideshare, walk them back, or flag down the stationed first responders at the south end of Rainey Street.

For comprehensive Austin nightlife safety tips, see our guide: Is Austin Safe at Night? A Tourist’s Neighborhood Guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a serial killer in Austin?

The Texas State University study says no. Many families of victims, alleged survivors, and true crime analysts say the question is still open. The physical evidence can’t distinguish between serial drowning murder and accidental drowning — which means the data is compatible with both explanations. Austin police have not classified any of the Lady Bird Lake drownings (aside from the Josue Moreno shooting) as homicides.

Is Rainey Street safe for tourists?

The bar district itself is safe — it’s well-populated, well-lit (now more than ever with the $1 million in improvements), and has stationed first responders. The risk comes from the proximity to Lady Bird Lake and the combination of heavy drinking with dark water access. Stay with your group, use rideshares, and avoid the lakeside trail at night.

Is Austin safe for gay travelers?

Aside from the serial killer, Austin is one of the most LGBTQ+-friendly cities in the South, with a thriving gay nightlife scene centered on the 4th Street Warehouse District. The question of whether Lady Bird Lake victims were specifically targeted as gay men has not been confirmed or denied by authorities — the data doesn’t contain sexual orientation information for most victims. The practical safety advice applies equally to all visitors: stay with your group, avoid the lakeside trail at night, and use rideshares.

Should I avoid Lady Bird Lake?

Absolutely not — during the day. Lady Bird Lake is one of Austin’s best features. Kayaking, paddleboarding, the hike-and-bike trail, and bat-watching at sunset from the Congress Avenue Bridge are all must-do Austin experiences. The concern is specific to nighttime, particularly the stretches near Rainey Street. Enjoy the lake by day, respect it at night.

What is the “Rainey Street Ripper”?

The “Rainey Street Ripper” is a name coined on social media for the hypothetical serial killer that some people believe is responsible for the Lady Bird Lake drownings. The name references the Rainey Street bar district, where many victims were last seen alive. Neither Austin police nor the Texas State University study have confirmed the existence of such a person. The name has appeared across social media, true crime podcasts, and major news coverage.